The economist warns about the potential for a severe economic downturn, exacerbated by misguided tariffs and trade fragmentation. Predictions highlight that the S&P 500 could be negatively impacted as global trade slows, and unemployment rises amid decreased corporate profits, especially as ongoing trade wars with China intensify.

There's a warning that the U.S. may shift to a higher-risk investing jurisdiction, which could trickle down to decreased stock prices, including the S&P 500, based on ongoing economic policies and uncertainty.